| Time | Country | Event | Consensus | Previous | Actual |
| 06, February 2012 |
| 04:30 | AU | Retail Sales | - | 0% m/m, 3.1% y/y | -0.1% m/m, 3% y/y |
Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Retail Sales is a leading indicator for the economy. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures.
The headline figure is expressed as the percentage change from the same month last year.
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| 12:00 | UK | Halifax House Price Index | 0.1% | -0.9% | 0.6% |
A resumptive index of house prices reflecting prices for new constructions and resale real estate markets. As all indices connected with the construction industry it can be seasonally adjusted.
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| 13:30 | EU | Sentix Investor Confidence | -14.8 | -21.1 | -11.1 |
Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed investors and analysts. Above 0.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism. This is a survey of about 2,800 investors and analysts which asks respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook for the Eurozone.
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| 15:00 | GE | Manufacturing orders | 0.7% m/m, -0.4% y/y | -4.8% m/m, -4.3% y/y | 1.7% m/m, 0% y/y |
Measures the total change in orders placed at domestic manufacturers. The figure gives a picture of the strength of demand for German industrial products. Factory orders are an early indicator of the overall level of spending in the economy, and spending drives economic growth. Although higher German Factory Orders alone is not a strong enough factor to influence the value of Euro in a significant way, growth in orders can put upward pressure on the Euro if higher orders are due to greater demand aboard.
German Factory Orders is a seasonally adjusted index. The headline figure is expressed as a percentage change in the index.
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| 19:00 | CA | Ivey Purchasing Managers Index | 58.6 | 63.5 | 64.1 |
A monthly measure of the change in purchases by corporate executives. One hundred and seventy-five managers distributed among different regions and sectors are asked: "Are your purchases higher, the same, or lower than the previous month" A headline value above 50 indicates an increase in purchases from the previous month and a value below 50 indicates a decrease.
The PMI can be used to measure business optimism and forecast economic growth. Business firms increase purchases and spending in response to growing demand for their goods and services, a high PMI suggests overall expectation for an expanding economy. Furthermore, if businesses are optimistic of future economic conditions they will increase spending now in order to prepare for future demand in their goods and services.
Note : The Institute of Supply Management publishes a similar index known as the "Reports on Business" for the United States . Unlike the Canadian PMI, the Reports on Businesses uses mid-month data, adjusts for seasonality, and asks a combination of five questions. As a result, the Canadian PMI tends to have larger month to month movements than the U.S. version.
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| 07, February 2012 |
| 01:45 | NZ | Average Hourly Earnings | 0.5% | 1.3% | - |
An indicator of how the average level of pay is changing. The Average Hourly Earnings figure provides insight into future spending and inflation. A High Average Hourly Earnings bodes well for future consumption, as workers have more disposable income. High figures may indicate inflationary pressures due to employee's additional potential to spend. The figure is either measured in hourly or weekly averages or as a percent change from the previous month.
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| 02:30 | AU | AIG Performance of Construction Index | - | 41 | - |
Tracks monthly developments in the Australian construction sector.
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| 07:30 | AU | AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision | 4% | 4.25% | - |
The Bank of Australia decision about where to set the interest rate mostly depends on the inflation.
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| 09:00 | JA | Coincident indicators | 93.1 | 90.3 | - |
Measures the current economic activity based on a composite of indicators that track current business conditions in Japan . The headline number is derived by comparing the number of expanding indicators to the total number of indicators used. A headline number reading of 50% means that half of the available indicators are expanding.
Included in the index are; the expansion or contraction of industrial production, capacity utilization, retail and wholesale sales, power consumption, non-scheduled work hours, the job-offer rate and operating profits.
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| 09:00 | JA | Leading indicators | 93.9 | 93.2 | - |
The Index includes account inventory ratios, machinery orders, stock prices and other leading economic indicators. As the aggregate of many leading indices the Leading Economic Index provides a forecast of the future state of the domestic economy and is thought to predict activity that will occur 6-9 months after the reporting period.
The index operates on a 1-100 scale, where a value lower than 50 means that most indictors are negative and a value higher than 50 means most indicators are positive. In both cases a greater distance from the midpoint (50) means that the indicators are more strongly positive or negative.
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| 11:00 | GE | Wholesale Price Index | - | 0% m/m, 3% y/y | - |
Measures changes in the prices paid by retailers for finished goods. Growth in wholesale prices usually precedes increases in retail prices, thus changes in Wholesale Prices can be used as an early indicator for inflation. While the CPI records price changes for retail goods, the WPI might pick up inflationary pressures before they reach the headline retail CPI report. The headline number is the percentage change in the index.
Note: WPI provides seasonally adjusted price changes to account for goods' seasonally volatility.
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| 11:45 | FR | Trade Balance | -EUR 5.2 bln | -EUR 4.4 bln | - |
A country's trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payment, giving valuable insight into pressures on country's currency.
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| 15:00 | GE | Industrial Production | -0.1% m/m, 4.4% y/y | -0.6% m/m, 3.6% y/y | - |
Measures the per volume change in output from mining, quarrying, manufacturing, energy and construction sectors in Germany . Industrial production is significant as a short term indicator of the strength of German industrial activity. High or rising Industrial Production figures suggest increased production and economic expansion, healthy for the Euro. However, uncontrolled levels of production and consumption can spark inflation.
The report is only a preliminary estimate figure that does not move the markets much. The figure is released in headlines as a monthly percent change.
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| 17:30 | CA | Building Permits | 0.8% | -3.6% | - |
The number of new building projects authorized for construction. The figure is widely used as an indicator for developments in the housing market, since receiving a permit to build is the first step in the construction process. Thus growth in Building Permits reflects growth in the construction sector. Also, due to the high outlays needed for construction projects, an increase in Building Permits suggests corporate and consumer optimism. Additionally, because leading indicators for the housing market respond quickly to changes in the business cycle, the Building Permit figure can act as a leading indicator for the economy as a whole.
The headline is the seasonally adjusted percentage change in Building Permits from the previous month.
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| 19:00 | US | Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies | - | - | - |
Bernanke's testimony before Congress typically consists of reading a prepared statement followed by a question and answer session. The leader of the Federal Reserve can instantly influence the currency markets with his speeches and off hand remarks on the future of U.S. monetary policy. The remarks are poured over by traders and analysts for the direction of interest rates and the state of the American economy.
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| 08, February 2012 |
| 00:00 | US | Consumer Credit | USD 7 bln | USD 20.4 bln | - |
Measures the outstanding debt held by consumers. Consumer Credit levels coincide with the economy, rising during economic expansion and dropping during a recession. Growth in Consumer Credit means that consumers have higher spending ability, which can fuel economic growth. However, too much Consumer Debt can result in an economic slowdown in the long term if consumers become overburdened with debt, then either reducing consumption or passing debt on to the financers after bankruptcy. The headline value is the outstanding debt held by consumers.
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| 03:30 | AU | Westpac Consumer Sentiment | - | 97.1 | - |
Officially called the Consumer Sentiment Index, this figure measures the level of consumer confidence and is an average of five indexes measuring different aspects of consumer fiscal health. This is one of the few indicators that are entirely expectation based. Households report their views on current buying conditions for household items and where they feel are the "wisest" places to invest savings. Views on future political policy (taxes, politicians, government) and economic conditions (wages, inflation, unemployment) are also surveyed.
Confidence figures are often leading indicators for the consumer spending and the economy as a whole. The headline figure is percentage change in the index value from that of the previous month.
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| 03:50 | JA | Bank lending | - | 0.4% | - |
The value of all outstanding loans with Japanese banks. Bank lending is important because lending increases with increased business confidence and investment. It is particularly insightful for the Japanese economy because of the weakness that has plagued the Japanese banking sector. The headline number is for total loans and discounts and is a percentage change from the previous year.
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| 03:50 | JA | Current Account | JPY 340.1 bln | JPY 138.5 bln | - |
The Japanese current account balance, called the Current Account Total, summarizes the flow of goods, services, income and transfers in and out of Japan . The Current Account is more expansive than the trade balance as it also includes transfer payments, such as foreign aid, and income flows, which are the returns on investments in foreign assets. Nonetheless, the most significant component of the Japanese current account is the trade balance figure. Japan has historically had an export oriented economy and has relied on exports as the engine for overall economic expansion. Today still, trade surpluses form the foundation of consistent Japanese current account surpluses.
The Current Account is useful as a measure of net international trade flows, which directly affect currency values. A current account surplus reflects Yen flowing into Japan and this puts pressure on Yen to appreciate. On the contrary, a current account deficit means that more Yen are leaving the country from these sources, and this exerts downward pressure on the Yen.
The headline figure is the Yen-value of the Current Account.
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| 03:50 | JA | Trade Balance (BOP Basis) | -JPY 135 bln | -JPY 585.1 bln | - |
The difference between the total value of exports and the total value of imports. A positive figure indicates a trade surplus while a negative value represents a trade deficit. Because Japan 's economy is highly export-led, trade data can give critical insight into developments in Japan 's economy and changes into foreign exchange rates.
A surplus reflects capital flowing into Japan in exchange for Japanese exports, and a deficit means that capital is flowing out of Japan as imports are purchased in larger volumes by Japanese consumers. A trade surplus will act as an appreciating weight on the Yen, whereas a trade deficit will place downward pressure on the Yen's value.
Details in the Trade Balance report itself give useful insight into changing trends regarding Japanese trade. Such developments are especially important for the country, which is an export-oriented economy that has historically experienced large trade surpluses. Any affect on this could have dramatic affect on the domestic economy.
The headline figure for trade balance is expressed in millions of Yen and usually accompanied by a year-on-year percentage change figure.
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| 08:30 | JA | Bankruptcies | - | -6.4% | - |
Measures the number of companies that filed for bankruptcy in the last month, with liabilities of over 10 million Yen. The headline figure is the number of cases in all Japan for the last month. As an economic indicator the bankruptcies report is ambiguous. A high value can certainly indicate weakness in the Japanese economy, but the number of bankruptcies can fall even as the economy worsens. Generally a higher number of bankruptcies will be part of a larger picture of economic weakness, which can be a depreciating weight on a currency.
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| 09:00 | JA | Economy watchers survey | 47.6 | 47 | - |
The Economy Watchers Survey asks business-cycle sensitive workers their thoughts on existing and future economic conditions, giving a detailed picture of economic trends in Japan . The survey is based on questionnaires from 'man on the street' sectors that are particularly vulnerable to business cycle turns. These segments of the economy include sectors such as retail, restaurant service, and taxi driving. With this combined data the Japanese Eco Watchers report serves as both a consumer confidence indicator and a leading indicator for the rest of the economy. The report is usually released less than two weeks after the reporting month, thus its statistics are usually very timely. The headline number is released where 50 represents the center midpoint line of boom/bust sentiment.
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| 10:45 | CH | Unemployment Rate | 3.5% | 3.3% | - |
The percent of unemployed persons in the labor force. The labor force is the aggregate of employed and unemployed persons. The rate is released as both a seasonally adjusted and unadjusted figure. The seasonally adjusted number is a key indictor of Swiss labor market conditions, significant because of its timeliness and overall market impact.
High unemployment translates to lower average wages and reduced consumer spending. As consumer spending is the majority of total expenditure, rising unemployment often leads to slow economic growth. In addition, high or rising unemployment puts downward pressure on interest rates and leads to a depreciating Franc.
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| 11:00 | GE | Trade Balance | EUR 14.1 bln | EUR 15.1 bln | - |
The difference between the value of exports and imports in Germany. Trade Balance is one of the biggest components of Germany 's Balance of Payment. As Germany is Europe's largest economy and given Germany's export oriented economy, trade data can give critical insight into pressures on the value of the Euro.
In order to gauge the effect of German Trade Balance on the Euro, German trade is separated into intra-Euro-zone trades and extra-Euro-zone trades. Intra-trades between Germany and Euro-zone member countries have no affect on the overall valuation of Euro. Extra-trades between Germany and other countries outside of Euro-zone do impact the overall Euro-zone trade balance. Given Germany's large share of Euro-zone exports, the figure tends to move the market upon release.
Trade surpluses reflect funds coming into Germany in exchange for goods and services. Such currency inflows may lead to a natural appreciation of a Euro, unless countered by similar capital outflows. At a bare minimum, surpluses will boost up the value of the currency.
The headline figure for trade balance is expressed in billions of Euros.
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| 11:00 | GE | Current Account | EUR 15.2 bln | EUR 14.3 bln | - |
The German Current Account acts as a gauge for how Germany's economy interacts with the rest of the world. Current account is one of the three components (Financial Account, Capital Account and Current Account) that make up a country's Balance of Payments, the detailed accounting of all international interactions. Where the other side of the Balance of Payments, Capital and Financial Accounts, deals mainly with financial assets and investments, the Current Account gives a detailed breakdown of how the country intermingles with rest of the global economy on a routine, non-investment basis.
The Current Account tracks the trade balance (exports and imports for goods and services), income payments (such as interest, dividends and salaries) and unilateral transfers (aid, taxes, and one-way gifts). A positive value (current account surplus) records that the flow of capital from these components into Germany exceeds the capital leaving the country. A negative value (current account deficit) means that there is a net capital outflow from these sources. Since the German economy is by far the largest in the EU, German Current Account has significant weight on the Euro. Persistent Current Account surpluses may lead to a natural appreciation of a currency, as trade, income and transfer payments usually reflect Euros coming into the country (just as underlying deficit act as depreciating weight).
There are a number of factors that often work to diminish the impact of the Current Account release on the market. The report is not very timely, released monthly about two weeks after the reporting period. In addition, many of the components that lead to the final Current Account, such as production and trade figures, are known well in advance. Lastly, since the report reflect data for a specific reporting month, any significant developments in the Current Account should plausibly have been already felt during that month and not during the release of data. But due to the significance of German Current Account in tracking foreign exchange developments, the report has a history of moving markets upon release.
The headline number is the Current Account balance and the percentage change in the Current Account from the previous month.
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| 16:00 | US | MBA Mortgage Applications | - | -2.9% | - |
Gauges demand for mortgage application in the US . Tracking new home mortgages and refinances, MBA Mortgage Applications Survey serves at a current indicator for the US housing market. Growth in mortgages suggests a healthy housing market. Due to the multiplier effect housing has on the rest of the economy, rising activity suggests increased household income and economic expansion. The headline figure is the weekly percentage change in the MBA Mortgage Applications figure.
Among the various indices measured in the survey, the purchase index and refinancing index most accurately reflect where the housing market is headed. The purchasing index measures the change in existing home sales in all mortgage applications, while the refinance index measures the mortgage refinancing activity in all mortgage applications.
Note: Due to volatility in the sector, markets also focus on the four week moving averages.
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| 17:15 | CA | Housing Starts | 192K | 200.2K | - |
Reflects the rate of growth in housing construction. Housing Starts act as an indicator measuring the strength of Canada's construction sector and housing market. Economists also use the figure as a leading indicator for the economy as a whole due to Housing Starts' sensitivity to changes in the business cycle. Housing Starts slow at the onset of a recession and quickly grow at the beginning of an economic boom; consequently, a high Housing Starts figure forecasts strong economic growth.
The headline figure is the percentage change in new home starts.
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| 09, February 2012 |
| 01:45 | NZ | Unemployment Rate | 6.5% | 6.6% | - |
The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.
Note: The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems.
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| 03:50 | JA | M3 Money Supply | 2.6% | 2.6% | - |
The total supply of money in circulation in a given country's economy at a specific time. The primary measures of money supply include: M1, M2, and M3...
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| 03:50 | JA | Home Loans | - | 2.1% | - |
Tracks developments in the number and value of outstanding home loans in Japan. .
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| 03:50 | JA | Machine Orders | -4.6% m/m, 8.5% y/y | 14.8% m/m, 12.5% y/y | - |
The total value of machinery orders placed at major manufacturers in Japan . Machine Orders is considered the best leading indicator of business capital spending, and increases are indicative of stronger business confidence and a better forward outlook. Higher capital spending is also positive for the Japanese employment situation, as companies will generally require new employees to run new machinery. The headline figure is the seasonally-adjusted month-on-month and annualized percentage change.
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| 03:50 | JA | Money Supply M2 + CD | 3.1% | 3.1% | - |
Measure of the money supply used by the Bank of Japan. The figure includes all currency in circulation plus all bank deposits. This indicator tends to track closely with the total money supply. The figure focuses mostly on individual deposit accounts rather than institutional accounts, making it a more attractive money indicator than broad liquidity measures.
The headline figure is the percentage change from the previous year.
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| 05:30 | CN | CPI | 4% | 4.1% | - |
Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures.
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| 05:30 | CN | PPI | 0.8% | 1.7% | - |
Measures changes in the selling prices producers charge for goods and services, and well as tracks how prices feed through the production process. Because producers tend to pass on higher costs to consumers as higher retail prices, the PPI is valuable as an early indicator of inflation. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Dollar, where each dollar buys fewer goods and services. The report also gives insight into how higher prices from raw materials flow toward the final product.
A rise in PPI signals an increase in inflationary pressures. Given the economic instability associated with rising price levels, the Fed often will raise interest rates to check inflation. A low or falling PPI is indicative of declining prices, and may suggest an economic slowdown.
The headline figure is expressed in percentage change of producer price.
Notes: The PPI records prices at various stages of production: raw goods, intermediate goods and finished goods. Though intermediate and crude goods price do provide insight for future inflationary pressure, it is the price of finished goods that generates most interest for market participants. The finished goods data is able to gauge price pressure before the goods reach the retail market.
Core PPI, Excluding Food and Energy
The PPI is also reported without the volatile food and energy components. In addition to being seasonally volatile, the two comprise a significant portion of goods. As a result, any sudden disruption in oil or food supplies will significantly distort the Producer Price Index inflation assessment. By excluding such entities, Core PPI is able to provide a truer, more consistent picture of inflation trends.
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| 09:00 | JA | Consumer Confidence | 38.6 | 38.9 | - |
Consumer confidence is a measure of popular sentiment concerning the Japanese economy. The figure is derived from a survey that asks thousands of Japanese consumers about personal expenditure patterns and inflationary expectations. In general, rising consumer confidence precedes increased consumer spending, which drives both economic growth and inflation. Even though t he Japanese economy is heavily driven by its export sector, domestic consumer confidence is an important gauge of overall economic activity and future inflationary pressures.
A headline figure above 50 shows positive consumer sentiment, while a number below 50 shows negative consumer sentiment; the greater the distance, the stronger the sentiment.
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| 10:00 | JA | Machine Tool Orders | - | 17.4% | - |
The total value of machinery orders placed at major manufacturers in Japan . Machine Orders is considered the best leading indicator of business capital spending, and increases are indicative of stronger business confidence and a better forward outlook. Higher capital spending is also positive for the Japanese employment situation, as companies will generally require new employees to run new machinery. The headline figure is the seasonally-adjusted month-on-month and annualized percentage change.
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| 10:30 | RU | International reserves | - | USD 504 bln | - |
The amount of international reserves reflects the external - economic turnover and capital flows during earlier periods.
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| 10:45 | CH | SECO Consumer Confidence | -23 | -24 | - |
SECO Consumer Climate compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on present economic conditions and expectations of future conditions. In the months of January, April, July and October, about 1’100 households are surveyed on behalf of SECO regarding their subjective evaluation of the economic situation, budget situation, inflation, job security etc.
The pattern in consumer attitudes and spending is often a major influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. Consumer spending accounts for a major portion of the Swiss economy, so investors want to know what consumers are up to and how they might behave in the near future. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend.
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| 13:30 | UK | Trade Balance | -GBP 8.6 bln | -GBP 8.64 bln | - |
The difference between imports and exports of goods. Visible Trade differentiates itself from Trade Balance because it does not record intangibles like services, only reporting on physical goods. Because Britain's economy is highly trade driven, Visible Trade data can give critical insight into developments in the economy and into foreign exchange rates.
Negative Visible Trade (deficit) indicates that imports of goods are greater than exports. When exports are greater than imports, the UK experiences a trade surplus. Trade surpluses indicate that funds are coming into the UK in exchange for exported goods. Because such exported goods are usually purchased with Pounds, trade surpluses usually reflect currency flowing into Britain, such currency inflows may lead to a natural appreciation of Pound Sterling, unless countered by similar capital outflows. At a bare minimum, surpluses will buoy the value of the currency.
There are a number of factors that work to diminish the market impact of UK Visible Trade on markets. The report is not very timely, released monthly about forty days after the reporting period. Developments in many of the components that comprise the figure are also usually well anticipated. Lastly, since the report reflect data for a specific reporting month, any significant changes in Visible Trade should plausibly have been already felt during that quarter and not during the release of data. But because of the overall significance of Trade on Foreign Exchange Rates, the figure has a history of being one of the more important reports out of the UK.
The headline figure is expressed as the value of the merchandise trade surplus or deficit in billions of Pounds.
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| 13:30 | UK | Manufacturing Production | 0.3% m/m, 0.3% y/y | -0.2% m/m, -0.6% y/y | - |
This report is a feature of Great Britain industrial sector. The index number of industrial production is the basic component of GDP.
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| 13:30 | UK | Industrial Production | 0.2% m/m, -3.1% y/y | -0.6% m/m, -3.1% y/y | - |
A measure of the manufacturing output of the energy sector, factories, and mines. Industrial production is significant as a short term indicator of the strength of UK industrial activity. Industry accounts for about a quarter of overall GDP. Because industrial production accounts for most of the volatility in GDP, foreknowledge of trends in manufacturing go a long way in forecasting UK output. High or rising Industrial Production figures suggest increased production and economic expansion, healthy for the Pound. However, uncontrolled levels of production and consumption can spark inflation. In times of inflation the Bank of England may raise interest rates to control growth.
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| 13:35 | UK | Trade Balance Non EU | -GBP 5 bln | -GBP 5.021 bln | - |
A gauge of Britain's trade with countries outside of Europe. The headline figure, expressed in billions of Pounds, is the value of exports to Non European Union countries minus the value of imports from those countries. A positive value represents a trade surplus while a negative value amounts to a trade deficit. The value of Great Britain's non-EU trade is about 30% less than that of its intra-EU trade, and the distinction between EU and non-EU figures can help investors anticipate which currency pairs will be most affected by changes in the UK trade balance.
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| 16:00 | UK | BoE MPC interest rate announcement | 0.5% | 0.5% | - |
The announcement of whether the Bank of England has increased, decreased or maintained the key interest rate. The BoE meets monthly to decide on monetary policy. After each meeting policy decisions are announced. The main task of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee is to set the monetary stance by fixing the overnight borrowing rate, which is incremental in determining the short-term rates. Through this mechanism, the BoE attempts to affect price levels in order to keep inflation within the target range while maintaining stable economic growth and employment.
The BOE Rate decision has great influence on financial markets. Changes in rates affect interest rates for consumer loans, mortgages, bond, and the exchange rate of the Pound. Increases in rates or even expectations of increases tend to cause the Pound to appreciate, while rate decreases cause the currency to depreciate.
The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee issues a statement with every rate announcement. Because the decision itself is usually highly anticipated, the wording of the BOE statement is usually as important if not even more important than the actual interest rate move made by the central bank. The statement contains the BOE's collective outlook on the economy as well as hints about future monetary policy while the change to interest rates is nothing more than a number. The statement provides clues on plans for the future. When it comes to interest rates, the future direction of rates is usually far more important than its current rate.
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| 16:45 | EU | ECB interest rate announcement | 1% | 1% | - |
The European Central Bank's decision to increase, decrease, or maintain interest rates. Controlling interest rates is the key mechanism of monetary policy, and the ECB influences interest rates by first changing the "overnight rate" through the purchase or sale of government bonds. Lowering rates can spur economic growth but may incite inflationary pressures. On the other hand, increasing rates slows inflation but can stymie growth.
The European Central Bank makes a concerted effort to be transparent in its policy. Frequent speeches by Bank Governers make policy goals clear and the Bank adheres to a stated inflation target of 2 percent, changing rates accordingly to meet that goal. Because of this, rate decisions are generally well anticipated, but very important nonetheless.
The ECB's rate decision has an enormous influence on financial markets. Because the ECB interest rate is essentially the return investors receive while holding Euros, changes in rates affect the exchange rate of the Euro.
Because rate changes are usually well anticipated, the actual decision does not tend to impact the market. But if the ECB changes rates they will hold a press conference where some rationale for the decision is offered. Market participants pay close attention to the press conference, hoping to clue in on the likelihood of further rate changes. Often, the language used in the press conference holds important signals to how ECB feels about inflation and the economy. The ECB President's language will be "hawish" if he is pessimistic about the inflation outlook for the economy. In that case, the market sees a higher chance of future rate hike. Conversely, if the ECB President believes inflation is in check, his remarks will be "dovish," and the market perceives a future rate increase to be unlikely.
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| 17:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 390K | 367K | - |
The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes.
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| 17:30 | EU | ECB press conference following interest rate announcement | - | - | - |
European Central Bank press conference following interest rate announcement.
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| 17:30 | CA | New Housing Price Index | 0.5% m/m, 2.6% y/y | 0.3% m/m, 2.5% y/y | - |
A component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that measures changes in prices for new homes. Higher housing prices suggest stronger consumer demand and growth in the housing market. At the same time, higher housing prices that accompany economic expansion often lead to inflationary pressures. The headline number is the percentage change in the index.
Note: The New Housing Price Index takes into account the quality and features of the new homes sold. For example, if selling prices for new homes are unchanged, but the features and quality of housing have increased (e.g. added swimming pool and better construction materials), then the price for new homes is considered to have fallen.
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| 19:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories | 0.4% | 0.1% | - |
The stock of unsold goods held by wholesalers. Wholesalers act as intermediaries between manufacturers or importers, and retailers. Wholesalers sell directly to retailers, who strive to act in accordance (ideally) with consumer demand. Consequently, high Wholesale Inventories indicate that unsold goods are piling up, suggesting that retailers are facing lagging consumer demand and unwilling to purchase goods. Conversely, declining Wholesale Inventories suggest retailers are buying more goods to meet strong or rising demand. Because Wholesale Inventories reflect the demand retailers have for their manufacturers' wares, the report offers an early indication of the potential strength of consumer spending.
Wholesale Inventories are reported in headlines as a percent change from the previous month.
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| 19:00 | UK | GDP preliminary | - | 0.1% | - |
An indicator for broad overall growth in the United Kingdom. Robust UK GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity, and therefore a high demand for currency. Economic expansion also raises concerns about inflationary pressure, which generally prompts monetary authorities to increase interest rates. This means that positive GDP readings are generally bullish for a given currency, while negative readings are bearish.
Due to the untimeliness of this report and because data on GDP components are available beforehand, the actual GDP figure is usually well anticipated. But given its overall significance GDP has the tendency to move the market upon release, acting to confirm or upset economic expectations. Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of activity that is generally associated with a healthy economy. However economic expansion also raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead to monetary policy tightening.
The headline figure for UK GDP is an annualized percentage growth rate.
Technically, Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way:
GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)
where
C = private consumption
I = private investment
G = government expenditure
EX = exports of goods and services
IM = imports of goods and services
Technical note : GDP is the total market value of goods and services produced in the U.K. within a given period after deducting the cost of goods and services used up in the process of production. Therefore, GDP excludes intermediate goods and services and considers final aggregates only.
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| 10, February 2012 |
| 09:00 | RU | Monetary base | - | RUR 6749 bln | - |
The monetary base is volume of money in the economy consists of currency (banknotes and coins) in circulation and commercial banks reserves in the Central Bank.
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| 11:00 | GE | CPI | -0.4% m/m, 2% y/y | 0.7% m/m, 2.1% y/y | - |
Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in Germany , where each Euro buys fewer goods and services. CPI is the most popular way to measure changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical German household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.
The German CPI is significant as one of the primary gauges of inflation. As the largest Euro-zone economy, inflation in Germany will contribute significantly to inflation in the Euro-zone and the behavior of the European Central Bank. High or rising inflation acts as a signal to the ECB to raise interest rates, an action which will result in the strengthening of the Euro. The headline figure for CPI is the percentage change in monthly and annualized percentage term.
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| 11:45 | FR | Industrial Production | -0.8% m/m, -0.6% y/y | 1.1% m/m, 0.9% y/y | - |
Measures the level of production of French industries. French Industrial Production tracks relative changes in the production of goods, excluding energy and food, whether they are sold domestically or abroad. The headline figure is the percentage change in the index from the previous quarter or year.
Industrial Production is highly sensitive to the business cycle, and so can forecast changes in employment, earnings, and personal income. Consequently, Industrial Production is considered a reliable leading indicator of the overall health of the French economy.
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| 12:15 | CH | CPI | -0.3% m/m, -0.7% y/y | -0.2% m/m, -0.7% y/y | - |
It is the key gauge for inflation in Switzerland. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Franc, where each Franc buys fewer goods and services. The CPI calculates the change in the price of a predetermined basket of consumer goods and services. This basket represents the goods and services that an average household will purchase. The figure is compared to those of the previous month as well as the previous year in order to gauge changes to the costs of living on a month to month and year to year basis. The headline number is the percentage change either from the previous month's value or the previous year's value.
As the key indicator of inflation, a rising CPI may prompt the Swiss National Bank to raise interest rates in attempt to manage inflation and slow economic growth. Higher interest rates make holding the Franc more attractive to foreign investors, and this higher level of demand will place upward pressure on the value of the Franc.
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| 13:00 | IT | Industrial production | -0.4% m/m, -7.2% y/y | 0.3% m/m, -4.1% y/y | - |
Measures the volume change of output of the manufacturing and energy sector. The industrial sector contributes to only a quarter of the Euro-zone GDP. However, most variations in GDP come from the industrial sector, whereas other sectors that contribute far more to national output historically have been very consistent regardless of economic cycles. That is why tracking industrial production is very important for forecasting GDP changes.
Note: The Industrial Production figure can be adjusted for the number of working days in the given time period and/or seasonally to account for weather related changes in production.
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| 13:00 | IT | Industrial production | -0.4% m/m, -7.2% y/y | 0.3% m/m, -4.1 % y/y | - |
Measures the volume change of output of the manufacturing and energy sector. The industrial sector contributes to only a quarter of the Euro-zone GDP. However, most variations in GDP come from the industrial sector, whereas other sectors that contribute far more to national output historically have been very consistent regardless of economic cycles. That is why tracking industrial production is very important for forecasting GDP changes.
Note: The Industrial Production figure can be adjusted for the number of working days in the given time period and/or seasonally to account for weather related changes in production.
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| 13:30 | UK | PPI Output Core | 0% m/m, 2.3% y/y | -0.1% m/m, 3% y/y | - |
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| 13:30 | UK | PPI Output | 0.2% m/m, 3.7% y/y | -0.2% m/m, 4.8% y/y | - |
A monthly survey that measures the price changes of goods produced by UK manufacturers. The figure is also known as "Factory Gate Price" because it usually matches the price of goods when they first leave the factory. Increased prices in manufacturing typically lead to higher retail prices for consumers. However, it is also likely that higher output prices are caused by manufacturers charging a higher premium due to higher demand for their goods. Consequently, market trends in consumption should be considered with Output PPI to avoid data misinterpretation.
There is also a Core Output PPI, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy. The Core PPI is generally a better measure of inflation because it excludes those items whose short-term price fluctuations can distort inflationary data.
The headline is the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (Output) from the previous quarter and previous year.
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| 13:30 | UK | PPI Input | 0.4% m/m, 6.8% y/y | -0.6% m/m, 8.7% y/y | - |
A monthly survey that measures change in input prices as incurred by UK manufacturers. Input prices include the cost of materials used plus operation costs of running the business. The index can be used as a measure of inflation, given that higher input costs will likely be passed on from producers to consumers in the form of higher retail prices. Th e figure is also calculated as Core Input PPI, which excludes volatile inputs such as food and energy that may distort the data. As such, the core figure is a more appropriate measure of inflation.
The headline is the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (Input) from the previous quarter and previous year.
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| 17:30 | CA | Trade Balance | CAD 0.7 bln | CAD 1.1 bln | - |
A country's trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payment, giving valuable insight into pressures on country's currency.
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| 17:30 | US | Trade Balance | -USD 48.2 bln | -USD 47.8 bln | - |
A country's trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payment, giving valuable insight into pressures on country's currency.
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| 18:55 | US | Michigan sentiment index | 74.3 | 75 | - |
Assesses consumer confidence regarding personal finances, business conditions and purchasing power based on hundreds of telephone surveys. Especially valued for its quick turnaround, the University of Michigan Confidence survey is considered one of the foremost indicators of US consumer sentiment. The survey polls a smaller sample of consumers and is less established than the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.
Declining consumer confidence levels usually accompany any fall income or wages and precede drops in consumer spending. A low or falling U Mich Sentiment value is considered an early indicator of an economic downturn. As a result, investors, retailers and traders alike all watch the figure for insight into the general health of the economy. UMich figures have recently preceded turning in overall GDP.
The headline figure is calculated by subtracting the percentage of unfavorable replies from the percentage of favorable replies.
U. of Michigan Confidence (Preliminary)
Early assessment of consumer sentiment regarding personal finances, business conditions and purchasing power. This preliminary figure incorporates approximately 60% of responses that are included in the final figure, and is revised at the end of the month. The preliminary results are not intended for wide release but are regularly leaked to the press and often available to the financial community.
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| 21:30 | US | Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks | - | - | - |
Ben Shalom Bernanke is an American economist, and the current Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States.
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| 23:00 | US | Minutes of FOMC meeting | - | - | - |
The Federal Reserve System actions have a significant impact on the U. S. stock markets and world financial markets, so market participants closely watch the changes in the interest rates and FOMC operations.
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| 23:00 | US | Federal budget | -USD 65.2 bln | -USD 86 bln | - |
Federal Budget is a state budget for a certain period (per year). Federal Budget defines the relation between public revenues and its expenditures.
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| 11, February 2012 |
| 05:30 | JA | Labor Cash Earnings | - | 0.1% | - |
The average amount of pre-tax earnings per regular employee, including overtime pay and bonuses. Though the report does not take into account all sources of household income (accumulated wealth and capital gains from financial assets are omitted), Labor Cash Earnings accurately reflects the spending ability of domestic consumers, one of the driving forces behind economic growth. Because growth in wages fuels higher consumption, rising Labor Cash Earnings generally lead to higher inflation.
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| 16:30 | US | Export prices | - | -0.4% | - |
This index reflects export price change per month.
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